Case Study 2: Energy Poverty in Lagos, Nigeria

Background: Lagos, Nigeria's bustling economic hub and Africa's largest city, stands as a beacon of hope and opportunity for many. However, amidst its glittering skyline and vibrant streets, Lagos grapples with a dire energy challenge that casts a shadow over the lives of its over 20 million inhabitants. In this case study, we delve into the intricate web of energy poverty that engulfs Lagos, affecting its residents and businesses.

The Energy Dilemma in Lagos

Lagos, Nigeria's economic hub, is plagued by persistent power shortages. Frequent power cuts, which can last for hours or even days, disrupt businesses, education, and daily life. The city's energy plight mirrors the broader Nigerian energy crisis.

Years of underinvestment and inadequate infrastructure maintenance have left Nigeria's power sector in shambles. Corruption and mismanagement have exacerbated the situation, diverting funds meant for infrastructure development. Lagos bears the brunt of these effects.

Energy poverty is a significant challenge in Lagos, with only about 10% of households using clean energy for cooking. The lack of access to electricity forces residents to rely on biomass and generators, which pollute the environment and contribute to rising fuel costs. This problem is not unique to Lagos, as almost 800 million people worldwide suffer from energy poverty.

The Generators' Symphony

In Lagos, the symphony of generator sets is a constant background noise. Generators, whether small or industrial-sized, have become essential during power outages. However, this reliance on generators comes at a considerable cost.

Like most Nigerians, Lagos residents depend heavily on imported refined fuel due to the dysfunctional state of the country's refineries. The escalating cost of diesel and petrol is a grave concern. Diesel prices have nearly doubled and then tripled, reaching almost $2.5 per liter. Families, local businesses, and even large corporations in Lagos are reeling under the financial strain. Many rely on generators for basic electricity needs, and the increasing cost affects their quality of life and economic viability.

The Economic Toll

The energy crisis in Lagos has profound economic repercussions. The city's businesses, both small and large, face significant challenges. Increased production costs often result in higher prices for consumers, making essential goods less affordable. Additionally, the unreliable power supply disrupts manufacturing and stifles economic growth.

📖 Read this article to learn more about the energy challenge in Lagos.

In Lagos, the quest for solutions is ongoing. Calls for government intervention range from revitalizing the power sector to investing in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. However, the path to improvement remains uncertain, and until tangible changes are realized, the resilient people of Lagos will continue to navigate the challenging terrain of energy poverty, hoping for a brighter and energy-secure future for their beloved city.

Now let’s analyze the Lagos energy challenge using the problem tree analysis technique.

Step 1: Draw the Problem Tree

Begin with a vertical line at the center of your page, representing the core problem: Energy Poverty in Lagos

Step 2: Identify Causes (Roots)

Identify the main causes or roots contributing to energy poverty in Lagos:

From the case study, we can identify the following causes

• Underinvestment in Power Infrastructure
• Corruption and Mismanagement
• Dysfunctional Nigerian Refineries
• Heavy Reliance on Imported Refined Fuel
• Escalating Fuel Prices

Step 3: Ask "Why" for Each Cause (Root)

For each cause, ask "Why?" to delve into the underlying factors:

1. Why is there underinvestment in power infrastructure?

   • Answers:
     • Limited government funding and budget allocation.
     • Corruption and mismanagement

2. Why does corruption and mismanagement persist?

   • Answers:
     • Lack of transparency and accountability.
     • Dysfunctional Nigerian refineries

3. Why are Nigerian refineries dysfunctional?

   • Answers:
     • Years of neglect, poor maintenance, and mismanagement.
     • Heavy reliance on imported refined fuel

4. Why does Lagos rely heavily on imported fuel?

   • Answers:
     • Inadequate local refining capacity due to refinery dysfunction.
     • Escalating fuel prices

5. Why are fuel prices escalating?

   • Answers:
     • Fluctuations in global oil prices
     • Market dynamics
     • Taxation policies

Step 4: Identify Consequences (Fruits)

❓ Can you identify the consequences or fruits resulting from energy poverty in Lagos *(Hint: Read through the case study again to identify the effects of energy poverty)

Step 5: Ask "Why" for Each Consequence (Fruit)

For each consequence, ask "Why?" to uncover the underlying impacts.

• Example
  1. Why are there frequent power cuts?
     1. Insufficient electricity generation and distribution.
  2. Why do people rely heavily on generators?
     1. Unreliable public power supply.
  3. Why are fuel costs escalating?
     1. Dependence on imported fuel and fluctuations in global oil prices.
  4. Why are there economic challenges?
     1. Increased production costs, reduced productivity, and economic instability.
  5. Why are production costs rising?
     1. Dependence on generators and increased fuel expenses.
  6. Why is economic growth hindered?
     1. Low productivity, reduced investment, and higher costs.
  7. Why are consumer goods less affordable?
     1. Rising production costs passed on to consumers.

Step 6:** Analyze Interconnections in the Problem Tree

Now, try to identify the connections between the causes and consequences of the energy challenge.

For instance, the root cause of “chronic underinvestment in energy infrastructure” leads to “insufficient electricity generation” (consequence). Another connection can be seen in how the root cause of “corruption” diverts funds away from critical power infrastructure projects.

❓ Can you identify other connections from the problem tree? Share on this Padlet.

Other connections include:

• Dysfunctional refineries contribute to a reliance on imported fuel.
• Heavy reliance on imported fuel leads to escalating prices.
• Escalating fuel prices contribute to economic challenges.

🪞 Reflection Activity

Imagine you're a policymaker in Lagos tasked with solving the energy poverty issue. After conducting this problem tree analysis, what immediate actions and long-term strategies would you prioritize to address the root causes effectively and bring sustainable change to the community?

Share your thoughts in the padlet below.